3rd International Conference Advanced Technologies for Homeland Defence and Border Protection - an Event of World Premieres

New Polish Armour Strategy Debuts During the RAPORT-wto Debate

by Wojciech Łuczak

The universal tracked combat platform of our land forces in future could be a state-of-the-art, domestically manufactured vehicle based on the construction of the Swedish CV90. Very soon, the Bumar Group plans to sign the necessary agreement with BAE Systems AB (the former Hagglunds and Bofors, now of Britain), thanks to which it will become the co-designer and manufacturer of a new combat vehicle - the CV90120C. The Bumar Group's vice-president, Artur Trzeciakowski, announced this publicly for the first time on 9 May 2007 at Warsaw's Marriott Hotel during the 3rd International Conference Advanced Technologies for Homeland Defence and Border Protection, organized - as always - by Altair Air Agency, publishers of RAPORT-wto, and the Warsaw Exhibition Board of Biuro Reklamy Poland SA.

Trzeciakowski said that he had intentionally chosen our forum (due to its renown) as the venue for informing public opinion about the Polish armoured-vehicle group's strategic technical and development plans. He also said that the combat parameters of the latest Polish tank made at Bumar - the PT-91M, exported to Malaysia, are significantly superior to those of most vehicles used by our armed forces, but that due to the client's adamant request he could not unveil them as yet. "We are working on being able to boast about them", he said.

The promising CV90120C, with a turret featuring a non-rifled 120 mm gun, exists only as a design at present. A model will be shown to visitors at the MSPO 2007 in Kielce. A prototype may appear in Poland in October 2007 during a show celebrating the Swedish armed forces. The vehicle is to weigh 35 tonnes, and its gun will use the same ammunition as Leopard 2 tanks, according to Trzeciakowski. In addition, it will be equipped for the first time with devices giving the commander full 360-degree observation of the field from inside the tank, and also with several systems of active defence against ATGM's.

The CV90120 with various standards of extra armour, says Trzeciakowski, could be the perfect universal weapon for future operations of the Polish armed forces. Afghanistan and Iraq have proved that to effectively protect human lives, you have to have a tracked combat vehicle with strong armour and weaponry, additionally adapted to being transported by air (A400M, Il-76, An-124). On the other hand, the Polish tank industry would gain the opportunity to move on to state-of-the-art 21st-century armoured-vehicle technology, and could join the club of designers of the latest, revolutionary programmes changing the land forces completely. This would be possible to accomplish because BAE Systems (after the acquisition of United Defense) is involved in building combat vehicles for the U.S. Army's Future Combat Systems (FCS) programme - the greatest and most expensive armaments project for land forces, and is also making armoured vehicles of the future for the British equivalent of the FCS - FRES (Future Rapid Effects System).

Trzeciakowski's assessment of the possibility of the Bumar Group's factories being thus indirectly included in those two projects was confirmed by two other speakers at the conference, Richard Choppa representing Boeing (the integrator of the FCS programme), who spoke about its latest stage involving $3.7 billion for R&D work in 2007, and Roger Hornkvist, a manager from BAE Systems AB (formerly the Swedish Hagglunds). The latter outlined the most promising wheeled and tracked SEP combat vehicles that the Swedes are building together with the British for the FRES programme. Hornkvist also said that around 2012, the Swedish combat group of the European Union forces would most probably be equipped with the first 20-40 vehicles from the SEP family.

The conference was also the venue for another world premiere. Jean-Louis Benois from MBDA, a European missile technology corporation, and Marek Borejko from Warsaw's Telecommunications Research Institute (PIT) presented the concept for a multi-layer anti-aircraft and anti-missile defence system that could be involve Western European missiles combined with Polish radar systems and command networks. The system would include missiles of various ranges - from the smallest Mistrals, through the vertical-launch VL MICA, to the longest-range Aster 30. The marriage of all of these with various radiolocation devices and transmission systems for target, combat situation and defence management data, made by Warsaw's PIT and CNPEP Radwar, would create a new quality in European systems for defence against all kinds of airborne objects - from unmanned aerial vehicles to ballistic missiles. MBDA and PIT make no secret of the fact that the priority objective for both of them is to offer this kind of state-of-the-art solution for the defence of Poland's airspace, but for exports as well.

Anti-missile defence on a different, strategic scale, namely the location of the U.S. Ground-Based Midcourse Defense system's base for missile interception in Poland, was presented by Kenneth Hillas, the U.S. Deputy Ambassador to Poland, and Mira Ricardel, Boeing's vice-president for business development, Missile Defense Systems. The American technical part of the presentation was preceded by an introduction by Henryka Bochniarz, the first Polish president of Boeing Central and Eastern Europe.

Hillas set out to prove that the 10 main objections to the plan of making Poland home to a U.S. base of two-stage anti-missiles with independently guided interceptors are... just myths. He said that no terrorist group has attacked any U.S. installation in Europe for a very long time. He also said that the threat of radioactive contamination of the Old Continent after effective interception and destruction of a missile coming in from Asia is nothing compared to a nuclear warhead exploding at its target, stopped by no one. The most interesting thing was that he revealed that when informed of the Americans' anti-missile plans, each of the last four Polish governments had shown great interest. The conclusion from this can only be one - no Polish cabinet has displayed even a shadow of objection to Poland's U.S. interlocutors. Hillas said that mid-May 2007 would see the start of talks with the Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs on the legal status of installing the base and of its personnel in Poland. The Americans will propose a model applied in other NATO countries around Europe.

Ricardel carefully avoided any conclusive statements on the possible outcome of official Polish-American government talks, but assured her listeners that if the decision is made and the anti-missile base of which her employer, Boeing, is the main integrator, is set up in Poland, the corporation will make wide use of local contractors and technical partners. In this context, she mentioned the Telecommunications Research Institute. The presentation also confirmed our earlier speculations, published in RAPORT-wto, that any anti-missile base would require sizable water resources and the construction of appropriate reservoirs.

The special guest and opening speaker of the conference was Stephen Larrabee, an analyst of the famous Washington-based think tank - the RAND Corporation (he was a member of the White House team in 1978-1981). He described the wide range of threats in the world today and built a picture of the future of the balance of forces on the planet.

Larrabee said that the latest military operations have shown that many problems of the modern world cannot be solved by way of military intervention, because the parties to conflicts are usually organizations and movements that do not have the status of an organized state (non-state actors). A confrontation between regular military units, who trained for years for a different kind of operation, and these non-state actors is the greatest challenge. Just as important as taking control militarily over a country where an intervention is taking place, is having a vision for its reconstruction and then proper implementation of that vision. Hence new challenges in military science theory - a necessity for substantial physical mobility of military units combined with intellectual flexibility of command (in the sense of rapid adjustment and moving away from set patterns), and also the necessary change (when the time comes) of a combat force into a stability force.

According to Larrabee, the Republican administration of George W. Bush made numerous political mistakes in its drive to locate elements of its anti-missile defence system in Europe. First of all, they presented everything in technical and military terms, forgetting that in Europe you have to win people over to your ideas, and that the role of public opinion on the Old Continent is different than in the United States, being an important factor in government decisions. Larrabee thinks that no effort was made to create a favourable political climate around the American shield, under the (mistaken) assumption that just technical generalities offered to friendly governments would be enough.

The guest from Washington believes that the sources of the failures of the allied forces in Afghanistan lie in the fact that European governments are not treating Afghan matters very seriously. He said there could be no overall effectiveness if soldiers were restricted in fulfilling their mission.

The first term of George W. Bush and his team was very ideological, and could be described as a time of scepticism towards NATO and its capacity. It is only now, when experts from the Department of State have been heard, that NATO is regaining its position in the eyes of the U.S. administration. Regardless of who wins in the current race to the White House, the Republicans or the Democrats, the next administration will not be so carefree and uncritical in its use of military force to achieve political goals. What it will do is conduct more international activity aimed at winning its allies' support for its arguments.

One way or another, Iran will have a nuclear arsenal. However, even the most surgical U.S. military operation (attacks on nuclear installations) would only slow down the process of Iran's joining of the nuclear club by 5-7 years, but would be very unlikely to halt it altogether. The political, social and prestige-related cost of such a move would be enormous for Washington, seeing that there is still a kind of friendly sentiment towards the United States among Iran's intellectual elite.

In Russia, we are witnessing a dangerous redefinition of policy towards the West. The West in turn should apply a more united and integrated line towards Moscow. At this stage of Russia's road, we can only achieve anything by working together. It is advisable to seriously intensify the policy of support for Ukraine. However, just 17-20% Ukrainians support NATO membership. If a referendum were held, opponents of joining NATO would easily win over 50% of the votes - this diagnosis of the U.S. guest is in fact justified.

Ukrainian ambassador Olexander F. Motsyk, speaking after Larrabee, assured his listeners that Kiev's priorities have not changed. A policy of integration with the European Union and NATO continues. However, the people's mentality still includes Soviet stereotypes that make a large group of Ukrainians perceive NATO as an aggressive and hostile military pact.

Gen. Dr Shimon Naveh from Israel, a commander with 26 years of experience serving in the special forces, until recently responsible for officer training, gave a very exuberant and suggestive talk on the power of intellectual flexibility in the battlefield. On two critical examples of command in Israeli special operations, he proved that surprising an enemy who conducts asymmetrical operations requires an asymmetrical approach, methods of analysis and actions that break away from previous canons and allegedly unshakeable rules. Unfortunately all this was lacking in Israel's summer campaign in Lebanon, Naveh said. "We forgot everything we had been learning for years". Naveh thinks that the Hezbollah - a state within the Lebanese state - today has one of the most dangerous armies, who are quick learners and immediately take advantage of any mistakes made by their enemy. In addition, they have plenty of funds and the latest weaponry. "Our top commanders absolutely refused to take this into account", was the Israeli general's bitter comment.

Richard Froh, the highest-ranking of the four conference speakers representing NATO, head of the Joint Armaments Section at NATO HQ, presented plans for the modernization of the joint fleet of the Airborne Warning and Control System (AWACS). He also spoke about the current stage of construction of the joint NATO system for monitoring land force movements - the Alliance Ground Surveillance (AGS) system. Froh had some promising news for the Polish electronics sector - if we make an effort, we could still find a niche for ourselves in both projects. He also emphasized that the effort to have the ground base for receiving data from the AGS system located in Poland still stands a good chance of success.

The importance of the conference Advanced Technologies for Homeland Defence and Border Protection was best expressed by one of its regular participants: "We learn more and more here every year...".

Wojciech ŁUCZAK