Michał LIKOWSKI, Grzegorz HOŁDANOWICZ

The Polish MoD has presented an unclassified description of the classified Annex for the Technological Modernisation Programme 2007-2012 that covers the years 2009-2012. Bogdan Klich, the Minister of Defence, was forced to sign this Annex facing lack of approval of the President Lech Kaczyński for the prepared Programme 2009-2018. According to previous forecasts it stipulates the manning level of the permanent army of some 100,000 soldiers, but also the liquidation of the HQs of the 1st 'City of Warsaw' Mechanised Division, the Pomeranian and Silesian Military Districts (now within the Inspectorate of Support of the Polish Armed Forces) and over a dozen garrisons. The number of general mechanised brigades will be reduced to 10, although the Ground Forces Aviation Brigade will be established and Special Forces will be expanded.

The changes in the previously prepared Programme 2009-2018 follow from the results of the current economic crisis. But also from the need to make the structures more realistic and to provide real basis for the professionalisation, and in the further perspective for the full professional Polish Armed Forces. But for the time being this is merely a theory.

Theoretically more modern

The Polish MoD calls to reduce the number of personnel in the armed forces from the planned 120,000 do 100,000 soldiers. This number – including soldier candidates – is going to be achieved by the end of this year. Forming of the National Reserve Force, composed mainly of the former career soldiers, is going to be created starting next year. Its numbers will also be reduced from 30,000 to 20,000, with 10,000 by the end of 2010 and the full number by December 2011.

The reduction in numbers should be compensated by better equipment and use of the armed forces. While creating the programme project the MoD has assumed six basic principles: to increase the ration of fighting units to support units (currently the former comprise 53% soldiers, by 2012 they should have 62% of the personnel establishment), to flatten the command structure, to rationalise structures, to increase mobility and availability of forces, to move units out of big cities and to optimise the use of the infrastructure.

What is more, the troops should (in theory) receive large amounts of modern equipment, and this should increase their potential, their up-to-date factor, and the number of units operating in accordance with NATO standards.

All this should – according to the analysts in uniforms – improve the ability to defend own territory and to allow active international operations within NATO and EU. If it is implemented…

Three priorities Three principal basic goals of the modernisation are going to be realised.

The first is to make the reconnaissance and command system more efficient. To this end UAVs will be procured and the reconnaissance system integrated in accordance with the allied obligations for Intelligence, Surveillance, Target Acquisition, and Reconnaissance (ISTAR), which is a very spacious and a very general slogan/goal. It is worth noting that activities in this area have been realised for a long time, and the most recent examples of particular undertakings are: the creation of the third reconnaissance regiment (at Białystok), conversion of the Hrubieszów-based 2nd Regiment into a unit specialised in long-range reconnaissance for the ground forces, and the beginning of introduction of UAVs into home-born non international missions, initially in the form of the Orbiter mini-UAV. Another example of this will be the expected taming of the (seven) newly purchased ultramodern but not quite ready for use Goodrich optical reconnaissance pods on the F-16Cs. In this contexts the recent decision that Poland will leave the NATO Alliance Ground Surveillance (AGS) Core System (see RAPORT-wto 5/2009) is even more difficult to understand and results from an erroneous assessment of the new system's future…

Also the command system will be integrated in such a way as to obtain a transparent picture of the combat situation based on data from all units and level of command.

This is why the plan names as a priority the procurements (hopefully giving consideration to the significant national potential in this area!) of C4ISR systems, and in particular: combat identification and position monitoring (Blue Force Tracking, Battle Management System – experience from use of the allied BFT is gathered in Afghanistan, the national BMS should be created within the programme of modernisation of the BWP-1 IFV to the BWP-1M standard), field tele-IT systems (in fact various variants of the Jaśmin system from Teldat) and automated command and battle management systems (and in this area Polish IT centres have no reason to be shy, quoite against some opinions that question domestic solutions and promote the apparently perfected and 'reliable' products from leading NATO countries…).

The second priority is to improve the manoeuvre and hitting power. This necessitates procurement of, among others, modern helicopters, and upgrading of the machines already in use, to maintain the currently possessed potential in this area. Other undertakings directly linked to the 'hitting power' should also be realised, and particularly the introduction of:

• battalion modules on Rosomak and BWP-1M Puma AFVs with Remote Controlled Turret Systems with the 30 mm Mk 44 gun and Spike-LR ATM;
• squadron modules of surface-surface missile launchers with a range of up to 300 km and squadron modules of 155 mm Krab self-propelled howitzers with a hitting range of at least 40 km (realised by HSW under the Regina programme),
• precision hitting anti-tank ammunition with a range of up to 40 km (for the Regina programme),
• continued modernisation of the currently owned BM-21 launchers by HSW to the WR-40 Langusta on Jelcz P662 chassis standard with modern command systems from WB Electronics and Feniks-Z family missiles built by FPS Bolechów;
• personal armament and equipment of infantry soldiers.

Although the available documents do not mention that, it is an open secret that there is a serious intention to increase the anti-tank potential of the Polish helicopter force by the expected imminent decision to integrate the Spike missiles (but in the Spike-ER variant with a range of 8 km, since the Spike-LR missiles with a range of 4 km, currently on order and built by ZM Mesko, are not fitted for firing from airborne platforms) with some types of the Polish Army helicopters. This could lead to a requirement to include the Spike-ER launching capability in the new multi-role battlefield support helicopters planned to be procured, and this in turn could significantly narrow down the range of choice…

Construction the Umbrella over Poland

The third element of increasing the hitting power is, as already mentioned, the almost complete replacement of anti-aircraft equipment. It is significant that thanks to the introduction of medium range air defence systems (for example the Raytheon Patriot system batteries with PAC-2 GEM-T and PAC-3 missiles or the Polish systems offered by Radwar/PIT and MBDA, based on the French SAMP/T system with Aster 30 missiles), Poland should achieve the capability to destroy ballistic missiles. But it cannon be forgotten that this area of modernisation is in fact a replacement of all currently operated weapons of the air defence units of the Polish Air Force and of the Army, and also partly those of the Polish Navy which has, paradoxically, invested a lot in shore based anti-aircraft systems during recent years…

It has also been foreseen, as has long been awaited, to fully include in the integrated NATO air defence system (NATINADS) the command and guidance centres and long range radar posts of the core network (3 N-12M radars from PIT and 3 RAT-31DL from the Italian Selex - Alenia Marconi Systems procured by the NC3A Agency with NATO funds, plus the remaining N-11/12 radars of the national core network that complements the NATINADS network), forming under the CP 5A0044 Provide Backbone Air Defence Radars for Invited Nations package, approved by the North Atlantic Council (NAC) in 1999.

The cost linked with construction of 6 radar positions is covered entirely by funds of the NATO Security Investment Program (12 projects). All projects of the package are approved by the NATO Infrastructure Committee. The estimated value of the entire CP 5A0044 is approximately 88 million euros. In 2005 three radar posts were built. The radar posts fitted with Polish-built N-12M radars, delivered in 2006 and 2007 and deployed to Brzoskwinia, Roskosz and Wiewiórczyn positions, have operated since the beginning of 2008 in combat readiness 24 hours a day. Construction of radar positions at Chruściel, Zamość and Suwałki intended for RAT-31DL radars has been completed. Funds spent since the beginning of the package realisation have totalled 43.0 million euros (including 36,2 million euros of NSIP funds).

In further perspective it is planned to reform the Command and Guidance Centre (ODN) in Cracow into an ARS (Air Operations Centre, RAP Production Centre & Sensor Fusion Post; one of 18 in Europe from NATO funds), realised under the NATO ACCS programme (the other ODN, in Bydgoszcz, could provide similar functionality but under national programme; in fact it could be equipped with the Dunaj system from PIT, constantly upgraded and developed, highly assessed in the NATO, but not infrequently criticised in Poland; the ODNs in Warsaw and Poznań would undergo reorganisation, to become training or mobile stations).

Projects connected with providing communication with aircraft (including installing and starting up the MIDS Link 16 ground terminals) continue to be implemented. According to information from late 2008 the funds spent since the beginning of the package realisation total 14.7 million euros (including 5 million euros from Polish budget).

More modern technology

One precondition of increased potential of the Polish forces is to saturate them with modern technology. The Polish MoD assumes that by 2012 the amount of modern equipment compared to older generation equipment will be increased. At the moment the former amounts to just 26% of the Polish Armed Forces equipment. In 2012 this should rise to 35%. It has to be stressed, though, that the change should take place not just by procurements, but also thanks to disbanding units and withdrawing the old equipment they use.

The project has an annex in form of a list of main armament programmes that will be realised or started in 2012.

Programmes started prior to 2008 will continue, these being the procurement of Rosomak APCs in various versions, Rafael Advanced Defense Systems/ZM Mesko Spike-LR ATMs (by early May 2009 the Skarżysko-Kamienna-based plant has built the 1,000th Spike missile), Saab Bofors Dynamics RBS 15 Mk 3 naval missile systems (for the constantly upgraded Projekt 660M type Orkan missile ships; according to the contract of October 2006 deliveries of these missiles should have started in May 2009) and ZM Mesko Grom anti-aircraft systems. At the same time, five main upgrade programmes and eight multi-year so-called specialist programmes are to start in 2009.

The former include:

• modernisation of the air defence system by commencing the process of selection or procurement of short (SHORAD; do 25 km) and medium range (up to 100 km) missile systems, and also of artillery systems with a range of up to 4 km and of artillery-missile systems capable of engaging targets at a maximum range of 10 km (VSHORAD);
• acquisition of support and auxiliary (multi-role, SAR, anti-submarine and transport) helicopters;
• modernisation of the Polish Navy (continued construction of the sole Projekt 621 Gawron corvette, development and construction of the single Projekt 258 Kormoran II mine destroyer, procurement of the new submarine, forming of the Shore Missile Squadron);
• command support and battlefield imaging system, including development and implementation of force identification and tracking systems (Blue Force Tracking), battlefield management system (BMS) and data transmission systems in accordance with Link 11 (above all the Link 11B for the air defence, although this is a highly controversial solution as it is connected with investments into a mature system that is in fact slowly passing away) and Link 16 standards, and the modern wide-band data transmission radio sets (high capacity radio);
• unmanned reconnaissance (URS) and reconnaissance-strike systems (URSS), including procurement of [subsequent] mini-UAVs (although not necessarily Orbiter type), systems with short and medium range aircraft, including VTOL and operational level URS.

It is worth reminding that the process of selection of the initially 3, and currently 2 URS with medium range UAVs (up to 150 km) has continued since September 2008 (see RAPORT-wto 10/2008) and is constantly slowed down by competence doubts and by changing – also under influence of various offerers – visions of the equipment sought. Most confusion is due to the question of possibly arming the systems – the concept here range from the Spike ATM (solution not available in reality) through laser guided missiles (in both cases rejected by the General Staff of the Polish Army as too expensive compared to potential real targets in Afghanistan) up to the possibility of selected UAVs carrying machine gun pods…

As regards the helicopter fleet it should be hoped that the 'acquisition' term means in fact a purchase by an open bid, rather than another 'gift' of doubtful quality. It seems significant that the long awaited deliveries of series-modified Sokół helicopters in the PZL W-3PL Głuszec standard, highly praised by a significant fraction of pilots from Tomaszów for its new advantages, are not mentioned in the modernisation plans. The Głuszec could eventually be armed with Spike-ER ATMs thus essentially coming back to the concept carefully repudiated back in 1998, known as the Huzar programme…

Detailed programmes include:

• individual equipment and armament for soldiers (within the Tytan development project);
• simulators and trainers;
• LIFT class (advanced) trainer aircraft;
• BM-21 Langusta launchers (which in fact should read WR-40 Langusta!); presumably with ammunition
• 155 mm Regina squadron fire module (with 155 mm Krab self-propelled howitzers, command and logistics vehicles, command system and precision ammunition that allows to engage, first of all, enemy armour from a distance of up to 40 km from Krab posts);
• modernisation of BWP-1 IFVs to the BWP-1M standard under Puma programme;
• MLRS type [class] missile systems (programme of the WR-300 missile system squadron module with a range of up to 300 km within the Homar project);
• PZL M28B/PT Bryza transport aircraft.

In this case it is astonishing that one category – detailed programmes – covers broad, multi-range programmes like Tytan (which includes development of new field uniforms, ballistic shields, personal and team weapons, means of communication and optoelectronics), newly launched development programmes (Homar) and procurement programmes such as the Langusts or the purchase of unneeded M28B/PT Bryza aircraft that is being investigated by the attorney's office.

It is also strange that the three artillery programmes – Regina, Langusta and Homar – are dispersed rather than being considered one programme of upgrading army artillery systems, even more so as they, too, in fact include development or deliveries of ammunition etc.

Despite much stress being placed on the role and significance of the Special Forces, and despite unofficial confirmations of broad development (additional combat teams within Grom and the Naval Special Operations Unit) and modernisation plans (recently there have been signals about additional US$50 million provided by the USA for the Polish special forces, and particularly for the new, and very interesting in its concept, Command Support Unit of the Special Forces HQ), were not included in the key enterprises detailed in the unclassified document (5+8) but 'only' mentioned in the description of actions related to the Special Forces HQ. Obviously, it is also mentioned that it is planned to form the 15th Special Operations Squadron within the Polish Air Force, aimed at supporting the Special Forces HQ, but the unclassified document does not cover its future equipment…

It was a complete surprise that the very important, although not clearly 'combat' programme to replace the lorry fleet, and particularly the Star 266/944s, and perhaps also to replace the Honker, more and more controversial (facing doubts as to the homologation) although with record of good service with the Polish Armed Forces, were not mentioned.

Cuts

The reduction in numbers of servicemen will lead to drastic cuts in the number of HQs and units, and thus also the Polish Army assets. The Army intends to get rid of approx. 20% fixed property, mostly in big cities – military units should be located as close to exercise ranges as possible, to reduce transport costs. By 2012 the MoD should give back to local authorities 45,000 ha of land and 13.2 million cubic metres of buildings. This should allow to save 264 million zlotys a year after that date. It was stressed, though, that the operation is going to generate costs, for example to recultivate the land and its survey plotting. The decision also means that the number of garrisons will be cut from the present 126 to 101, 9 of these being liquidated and 23 merged.

The number of HQs and units will be reduced. Military district HQs will be disbanded. Their tasks will be taken over by the Support Inspectorate. Also the 16 Voivodship Military Staffs and 40 Military Replacement Commands (WKU) will be disbanded. The former will be replaced by four Regional Military Staffs. A lesser number of WKUs will be responsible for the recruitment and the largely limited mobilisation questions. Another significant change is to form 4 Regional Logistics Bases.

Significant limitations will apply to the military medical service. The MoD plans among others to hand 12 hospitals to the public health service. This will allow to reinforce with personnel and equipment the field hospitals that now operate for the foreign contingents.

The Ground Forces HQ is going to be moved from Warsaw to Wrocław. This will allow, according to the MoD, to avoid redeployment of the HQ during a war, and to use the buildings and the military communication network in that city.

As regards the units under the Ground Forces HQ, the HQ and staff of the 1st Mechanised Division will be disbanded. Its units will be allocated to the other 3 divisions, each of those having 3-5 general mechanised brigades.

The plan does not precise the number of liquidated first line units. It is known, however, that there are currently 14 general mechanised brigades. After 2012 the Polish Army is going to have only 10 brigades of the type.

The Ground Forces Aviation Brigade (BLWL) will be formed for optimum use of the army aircraft. The brigade will be based at Inowrocław (Mi-24D/V combat helicopters, concentrated in one base after the planned liquidation of the Pruszcz-based 49th Regiment) and at Mirosławiec (UAV squadron), and in the future it should be expanded with more squadrons of new helicopters (including those for CSAR operations). It should be stressed that the helicopter squadrons of the 25th Air Cavalry Brigade at Tomaszów Mazowiecki and Łęczyca would not report to the BLWL. It is still hard not to get the impression that the Ground Forces HQ lacks a body really responsible for the development and training of the army aviation, apart from the Airmobile Forces Head Office.

There will be also consolidation of artillery (3 regiments), anti-aircraft (3 regiments), engineering (3 regiments – 2 of sappers and 1 of engineers) and chemical (2 regiments) units, in line with the 3-division structure of forces.

Reorganisation of the Polish Air Force should be completed by 2012. Air bases and squadrons will be amalgamated into Tactical, Transport, and Training Bases. Anti-aircraft defence units will be concentrated in a single air defence missile brigade. A Special Operations Squadron will be formed for to support the special forces. The least changes (in theory) will apply to the Polish Navy. The Shore Missile Squadron will be formed with NSM missiles from Norway (provided that the contract is eventually approved by the end of the Summer 2009), that Kongsberg proves that the technical requirements are met, and that it is not challenged in a court or due to actions of the CBA or other services) and Polish Jelcz chasses and command and communication systems from PIT and Transbit. Naval air bases will be reformed into naval aviation bases of the Polish Navy Aviation Brigade.